Maputo, Mozambique (Running Africa) — The United Nations has called for negotiations to help end the long-running Cabo Delgado insurgency in northern Mozambique, warning that a military victory over Islamist militants does not appear likely in the near future.
The conflict, which began in 2017, has pitted Mozambican security forces and their allies against an armed Islamist insurgency linked to the Islamic State group, leaving thousands dead and forcing more than a million people from their homes.
In a report following a visit to Mozambique, UN Special Rapporteur Ben Saul warned that relying primarily on military force may not provide a lasting solution to the crisis and called for greater consideration of negotiations as part of efforts to end the violence.
UN Urges Negotiated Solution to Cabo Delgado Conflict
Saul’s assessment comes nearly a decade after the insurgency erupted in the gas-rich northern province.
The conflict has been characterized by brutal attacks against civilians and security forces, including killings and beheadings, while repeated waves of violence have devastated communities across Cabo Delgado.
Despite years of military operations, the UN report concluded that a decisive battlefield victory over the insurgents is unlikely in the immediate future.
The assessment strengthens calls for a broader strategy that combines security operations with dialogue and efforts to address the conditions that have helped sustain the insurgency.
Rwandan Troops Continue Supporting Mozambique Forces
Rwanda deployed troops to Mozambique in 2021, helping government forces recapture and secure territory previously controlled by insurgents.
The deployment, backed by European Union support, has played an important role in protecting strategic areas and limiting militant operations.
However, the UN report said the current security strategy is largely focused on defending territory rather than actively pursuing insurgent groups.
While that approach may reduce immediate violence in protected areas, the report warned that it could also give militants opportunities to regroup, recruit and rebuild their capabilities.
Cabo Delgado Conflict Kills More Than 6,600
The humanitarian consequences of the insurgency have been severe.
According to the report, more than 6,600 people have been killed since the conflict began, while approximately 1.5 million residents have been displaced.
An estimated 1.7 million people require humanitarian assistance, with communities facing lost livelihoods, destroyed property and reduced access to healthcare, education and other essential services.
Repeated displacement has placed additional pressure on families already struggling with poverty and limited economic opportunities.
Mozambique’s Natural Gas Projects Raise Global Stakes
Cabo Delgado is also home to some of Africa’s largest natural gas reserves, making stability in the province economically significant far beyond Mozambique.
Major international energy companies, including TotalEnergies, ENI and ExxonMobil, have invested or pursued large-scale liquefied natural gas projects in the region.
The insurgency has disrupted development and raised security concerns surrounding projects that could transform Mozambique into a major global LNG exporter.
Restoring lasting stability is therefore critical not only for displaced communities but also for the country’s broader economic ambitions.
UN Warns Military Strategy Alone May Not End Insurgency
The UN’s call for negotiations represents a push toward a political component in efforts to resolve a conflict that has resisted years of military intervention.
Any negotiations would face significant challenges, including questions over who could credibly represent the fragmented insurgency and under what conditions talks could take place.
But with thousands dead, more than a million displaced and no decisive military victory in sight, the report argues that Mozambique may need to look beyond the battlefield for a lasting solution.
Nearly a decade after the insurgency began, Cabo Delgado remains one of Southern Africa’s most serious security and humanitarian crises, with the UN warning that containing the violence may not be enough to bring the conflict to an end.
