African Development Bank Warns Super El Niño Could Cost Africa Up to $20 Billion
London, United Kingdom (Running Africa) — The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that a looming “super” El Niño could inflict economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion across Africa, with the hardest-hit countries facing GDP declines of up to 2% as extreme weather threatens agriculture, infrastructure and economic stability.
The bank cautioned that forecasts point to one of the strongest El Niño events on record, raising the risk of widespread droughts, floods and severe storms that could deepen food insecurity, strain water resources and undermine development gains across the continent.
AfDB Warns of Growing Climate and Economic Risks
According to Anthony Nyong, the African Development Bank’s Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, the anticipated weather phenomenon could push many African countries deeper into what he described as a “climate finance trap.”
Nyong warned that governments may be forced to divert scarce public funds away from critical sectors such as healthcare, education and infrastructure development to finance emergency disaster response and recovery efforts.
The AfDB said the economic impact could be particularly severe in countries already facing fiscal pressures and climate-related vulnerabilities.
Agriculture and Fisheries Face Major Losses
The bank estimates that African farmers are already experiencing nearly $330 million in income losses linked to worsening climate conditions.
Meanwhile, the continent’s fisheries sector could see productivity decline by 1% to 4% as rising sea temperatures and increasingly unpredictable weather disrupt marine ecosystems and fish stocks.
Agriculture remains a cornerstone of many African economies, making prolonged droughts, floods and erratic rainfall a major threat to livelihoods, food production and rural incomes.
Several African Countries at Highest Risk
The AfDB identified several countries as particularly vulnerable to the anticipated impacts of a super El Niño, including:
- Sudan
- South Sudan
- Democratic Republic of Congo
- Somalia
- Mali
- Burundi
- Nigeria
The bank warned that worsening environmental conditions in these countries could accelerate food shortages, trigger large-scale displacement and intensify competition over land, water and other natural resources.
Lessons From the 2023–2024 El Niño
The warning follows the devastating impacts of the 2023–2024 El Niño, which brought severe drought across Southern Africa while causing widespread flooding in parts of East Africa.
The extreme weather contributed to crop failures, livestock losses, damaged infrastructure and sharp increases in food prices, leaving millions of people in need of humanitarian assistance.
The AfDB said the previous event highlighted the urgent need for stronger climate resilience across the continent.
Africa’s Climate Adaptation Needs Continue to Rise
To better prepare for future climate shocks, the African Development Bank estimates that Africa’s climate adaptation financing requirements could increase from $50 billion to as much as $100 billion over the next year.
The bank says increased investment in early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable agriculture and disaster preparedness will be critical to reducing the economic and humanitarian impacts of future extreme weather events.
As climate risks continue to intensify, the AfDB warned that strengthening resilience now will be essential to protecting Africa’s economies, safeguarding livelihoods and sustaining long-term development across the continent.
